EVERYTHING WILL GET BETTER:  I'LL BET ON IT


                                 Julian L. Simon

             People everywhere are living longer.  The standard of living

        is rising throughout the world.  Raw materials and energy are

        getting less scarce.  The world's food supply is improving.

        Pollution in the U. S. has been decreasing.  Population growth

        has long-term benefits, though added people are a burden in the

        short run.  The U. S. benefits from more immigrants.

             These assertions have stood the test of time.  Indeed, in

        the 1980s the professional consensus, including a recent report

        of the National Academy of Sciences, has come to agree.  And I'll

        bet a week's or month's pay that any trend pertaining to human

        material welfare will improve rather than get worse. In contrast,

        the conventional beliefs of the doomsayers have been entirely

        falsified by events during the last two decades.

              Population growth and increase of income expand demand,

        forcing up prices of natural resources.  The increased prices

        trigger the search for new supplies, and eventually new sources

        and substitutes are found.  These discoveries leave humanity

        better off than if the shortages had not occurred. On balance,

        humans beings create more than they destroy.

             The structure of society determines the speed of

        development.  With economic liberty, population growth causes

        fewer short-run problems, and greater long-run benefits, than

        where the state controls economic activity.

                                       ****

             Julian L. Simon is professor of business administration at

        the University of Maryland.  His books on demography include  The

        Economics of Population Growth;   The Ultimate Resource; Theory

        of Population and Economic Growth;  Effort, Opportunity and

        Wealth,   The Economic Consequences of Immigration, and most

        recently, Population Matters:  People, Resources, Environment,

        and Immigration.  He has also written widely on other subjects,

        including research and statistical methods, the economics of

        advertising, and managerial economics.


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